“There has been a slowdown in both services and goods trade in the three months since July. This links in with other economic data showing a dampening of demand.
“Trade data from Germany this morning also shows a 2.8% fall in goods exports during October, so the UK is not alone in facing a slowdown.
“Although goods exports in October did not see the volatility of previous months, there was still a 2.6% drop in volumes. Goods exports to the EU fared better than exports to the rest of the world.
“However, the story for services was very different, they took a divergent trajectory – with a 2.5% increase in exports volumes.
“The World Trade Organisation forecast in October that global trade in goods should increase by 3% in 2025 so there is hope that demand in goods trade will pick up next year.
“But geopolitical factors still have the potential to weigh heavily upon traders as 2024 comes to an end.
“The government’s Trade Strategy due next year must deliver a clear plan to boost export performance in key sectors if it is serious about driving stronger economic growth.”
Goods imports volumes to the UK rose by 2.9% in October, driven by a 5% rise from the EU, with a lower 1% increase from the rest of the world.
In terms of EU goods imports there was a noticeable rise in machinery and transport equipment (aircraft imports from Germany and automobiles from Spain), together with fuel imports (refined oil from the Netherlands). Machinery and transport imports from the rest of the world also performed well (mainly electrical machinery from China), and more clothing from Bangladesh.
EU goods exports volumes increased by 1.1% but were offset by a 6.2% fall in rest of the world volumes.
In value terms, the modest rises in exports to the EU were of miscellaneous manufactured goods, chemicals, fuels, transport goods, and machinery. Notable falls in exports to the rest of the world included fuels (crude oil to the USA), material manufactured goods, transport goods (aircraft to Switzerland), and machinery.
UK services exports volumes increased by 2.5%, while imports to the UK decreased by 2%.
More detail on the ONS data can be found here.
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